I agree with your analysis. The only chance would be to have some beloved celebrity (Tom Hanks?) that might drive enough interest across party lines. Think Jesse the Body for MN governor. Ballot access still an issue unless No Labels lays the groundwork this year.
Thanks Jim. I think the celebrity-turned-political-candidate theory is possible (e.g., Zelenskyy), though we do have one example of a celebrity who flirted with a third party run in 2000 and then joined a major party to run in the 2016 primary. The drawback--maybe not a deal-breaker--is that a third party winner would almost certainly get well under 50% of the popular vote even while winning the electoral college. Ventura, for example, got 37% of the vote in 1998. Setting aside the electoral college rules, I think people could have a hard time with someone 60+% of people voted against winning the election.
I looked at the ballot access part for this piece and considered including it, but decided it wasn't nearly as big of an obstacle as the others I laid out. Every election this century has had multiple third party candidates get on the ballot in all or nearly all the states. Plus the post is too damn long anyway!
I agree with your analysis. The only chance would be to have some beloved celebrity (Tom Hanks?) that might drive enough interest across party lines. Think Jesse the Body for MN governor. Ballot access still an issue unless No Labels lays the groundwork this year.
Thanks Jim. I think the celebrity-turned-political-candidate theory is possible (e.g., Zelenskyy), though we do have one example of a celebrity who flirted with a third party run in 2000 and then joined a major party to run in the 2016 primary. The drawback--maybe not a deal-breaker--is that a third party winner would almost certainly get well under 50% of the popular vote even while winning the electoral college. Ventura, for example, got 37% of the vote in 1998. Setting aside the electoral college rules, I think people could have a hard time with someone 60+% of people voted against winning the election.
I looked at the ballot access part for this piece and considered including it, but decided it wasn't nearly as big of an obstacle as the others I laid out. Every election this century has had multiple third party candidates get on the ballot in all or nearly all the states. Plus the post is too damn long anyway!